Market data and import guide
Key numbers on the physical AI market, and the laws and standards to check before bringing overseas robots into Japan — all with sources.
Physical AI in numbers
$38B
Global humanoid robot TAM forecast (2035)
Goldman Sachs Research (Feb 2024), raised from an earlier $6B. Secondary reports cite a later revision to ~$138B, but we could not find Goldman's own publication of it.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research$5T
Humanoid market forecast (2050)
Morgan Stanley Research projects ~1 billion humanoids in use by 2050, with China as the largest market.
Source: Morgan Stanley約1.3万台
Global humanoid shipments (2025)
Omdia: AgiBot led with 5,168 units (~39%), followed by Unitree (4,200) and UBTECH (1,000). Chinese makers took the top spots.
Source: TechNode (Omdia data)500万台
Operational stock of industrial robots worldwide (2025)
A record, up 9%. Annual installations rose 11% to over 600,000 units in 2025 (IFR World Robotics 2026).
Source: IFR World Robotics 202635.4万台
Industrial robot installations in China (2025)
Up 20% and 59% of global installations; Chinese suppliers held 55% of their home market. Japan fell 19% to 36,219 units and dropped to third behind the US.
Source: IFR World Robotics 2026約25万台
Professional service robots sold worldwide (2025)
Up 24%. Transport and logistics was the top application at ~117,000 units (IFR World Robotics 2026 Service Robots).
Source: IFR World Robotics 2026 Service Robots1兆456億円
Japan robot orders (2025, estimate)
JARA estimate covering members and non-members, up 25.7%. Production was expected to rise 21.0% to ¥945.2B. Not a final figure.
Source: 日本ロボット工業会(JARA)1,100万人
Japan labor supply shortfall (2040)
Recruit Works Institute projects a shortfall of ~3.41M workers in 2030 and ~11M in 2040. By 2040 it estimates gaps of 24.2% for drivers, 25.3% for care workers and 22.0% for construction.
Source: リクルートワークス研究所「未来予測2040」What to know before bringing overseas robots to Japan
Radio certification (Giteki / Radio Act)
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Robots with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or LTE need Japanese Giteki certification. A special notification scheme allows uncertified devices that meet international standards to be used for experiments for up to 180 days. It covers wireless LAN and Bluetooth in the 2.4/5/6GHz bands but not LTE. Getting full certification afterward reportedly costs about ¥300,000 and takes 1–2 months, so check the seller's certification status before commercial use.
SourceCustoms duties and import clearance
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Japan's tariff schedule (April 1, 2026) sets a zero duty on HS 8479.50 (industrial robots not elsewhere specified), under both general and conventional rates. Import consumption tax (10%) still applies. Humanoid and service robots may fall under other HS codes depending on configuration, so confirm the classification with a customs broker in advance.
SourceJapan's 80W rule and collaborative operation
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Article 150-4 of the Industrial Safety and Health Regulations requires fences or enclosures for industrial robots rated above 80W when contact poses a hazard. A 2013 notice clarified that robots can work alongside people without fences if a risk assessment shows the hazard is removed or ISO-compliant measures (e.g. ISO 10218) are in place. A technical file (including the risk assessment) and a declaration of conformity are required.
SourceSafety standards (ISO 10218, ISO/TS 15066, ISO 13482)
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ISO 10218 covers industrial robots and ISO/TS 15066 covers contact limits in human-robot collaboration. ISO 13482 (JIS B 8445 in Japan) covers personal care robots used for guidance, transport or care, and is certified by bodies such as JET. Many Chinese humanoids lack these certifications, so buyers should plan their own risk assessment for the intended use and site.
SourceSubsidies (SME Labor-Saving Investment Subsidy, etc.)
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The general track of Japan's SME Labor-Saving Investment Subsidy supports custom equipment and systems, with a cap of up to ¥100M and a subsidy rate of up to two-thirds. It is separate from the catalog track. Deadlines and requirements change each round (the 7th round in July 2026 appears to have closed), so check the latest guidelines. The Monozukuri subsidy is another option.
SourceData transmission and security (economic security)
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In 2025, researchers reported that the Unitree G1 periodically sent telemetry, including camera, microphone and sensor data, to servers in China. They also disclosed a Bluetooth-based takeover flaw (UniPwn). These are researcher claims with limited independent verification. For factories or public sites, confirm network isolation, closed-network operation and firmware control before signing.
SourceMaintenance, spare parts and running costs
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Imported robots risk long downtime while waiting on the overseas maker. GA Robotics, a UBTECH dealer, estimates annual maintenance at about 25% of the robot price and highlights 365-day on-site support with bilingual Japanese-Chinese escalation. Check domestic spare-parts stock, the maintenance SLA and whether the dealer carries the maker's warranty.
SourceDistributor rights and sales channels
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Japanese distribution of Chinese robots is changing fast. TechShare has been reported as Unitree's master distributor, GMO AIR became an official Unitree distributor in June 2026, and the two announced a capital alliance in September. For UBTECH, Bitcoin Japan disclosed a planned exclusive Japan distribution deal in October 2026. Grey imports may lack warranty, maintenance or Giteki coverage, so confirm the official channel.
SourceExchange rates and price display
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Chinese makers usually quote in USD or CNY, excluding tax and shipping. Yen quotes shift widely with exchange rates, freight, duty and consumption tax, Giteki and maintenance. GA Robotics also notes its estimates vary by model, dealer and exchange rate. Show the currency, tax and shipping treatment and the check date in the catalog, and give the landed cost in Japan by quote.
SourceGeneral guidance only — not a legal opinion on any specific case. Please confirm with the relevant authorities and professionals.
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